Transition Time approaching

• NEWS
• 24 Dec, 2012 09:00:00 PM

Transition Time approaching

“Tough, challenging but always exciting,” is how Commodore Howard Piggott, of the Cruising Yacht Club of Australia, sums up the Rolex Sydney Hobart.

The 68th edition promises nothing less with a weather forecast mixing fast running, reaching, beating and moments of calm. A complex puzzle for the skippers and navigators, a demanding test for the crews and, for the eventual overall winner the chance to prove mastery of one of the world's pre-eminent offshore races.

Weather is plainly a key component of any yacht race. Correctly interpreting the meteorological pattern is essential; anticipating evolutions in wind speed and direction the path to a good performance. For the 77 crews competing in the 2012 Rolex Sydney Hobart, however, there is a perennial, but different type of change immediately ahead: the transition from Christmas Day festivities to final readiness for a 628 nautical mile yacht race,.As is tradition, the race starts at 13:00 AEST on the 26 December: a dramatic shift in spirit will be required.

The forecast 48 hours out identifies two further significant transitions. A 15-knot south-easterly heralds a spinnaker start. The wind strength will increase a little as the yachts exit the Heads, but then, during the first night, there will be a shift to fresher winds from the north-east. A sequence of fronts will pass through the race area, beginning early on 28 December, bringing westerly wind. Periods of light and calm, between progressively stronger surges in breeze will add complexity to the decision-making around this development.

Three 30.48 metre (100 foot) maxis form the headline act this year. Last year's protagonists in the battle to be first to finish, Investec Loyal and Wild Oats XI, are back
once again.  The former has a new management, racing as Ragamuffin Loyal under the
stewardship of Australian yachting legend Syd Fisher. Meanwhile, her archrival
has undergone a programme of upgrade aimed at improving her performance.

The maxis and chasing pack of 19 - 22 metre (60 - 70 foot) mini maxis are hoping
the predicted north-easterlies hold out for an extended period before the wind goes west. Mark Richards, skipper of Wild Oats XI, highlighted the reason: "The big boats can do 20 to 30 knots in a northerly, so if it hangs in for a couple of hours longer than
expected you can be an extra 60 miles down the track."

No one is talking with any confidence of breaking the record, but if one of the front-runners puts the puzzle together correctly it could be on.

This morning a panel comprising Fisher and Richards, along with Mark Bradford, skipper of Black Jack, Matt Allen, owner of Ichi Ban, and Jason Van der Slot, owner of the 16 metre (52 foot) Calm, concluded the prevailing forecast points to the larger yachts racing for the overall prize too.

Sitting just outside favoured bracket Van der Slot concurred, but has not given up before the start gun fires: "If we keep close to the 60 footers, we have a chance. We'll be getting to Tasman Island around midday. If we can do that, and keep the speed up, maybe we will be able to climb over the 60s."

With a course that starts in Sydney Harbour, and heads south through 8 degrees of latitude to the finish in Hobart, the Rolex Sydney Hobart has proven throughout its history that, in theory at least, any of the yachts lining up for the start has a chance of securing the main prize. Whatever the weather, a mix of skill, determination and even luck will help determine the name of the overall winner.

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By Key Parners/Regatta News